The World Prepared for the Worst

The last day before the closing of the United Nations climate conference in Madrid, Spain, on Friday, was marked with pessimism about the likelihood of progressive agreements to reduce the rate of global emissions.

KOMPAS/AHMAD ARIF

Climate Reality Project founder and former United States vice president Al Gore speaks at the United Nations Climate Summit (COP25) in Madrid on Wednesday (11/12/2019). He said that Indonesia had shown progress in tackling climate change, but there were still many challenges, especially related to the trend of production, exports and the use of coal energy, which was still high.

MADRID, KOMPAS — The last day before the closing of the United Nations climate conference in Madrid, Spain, on Friday (13/12/2019) was marked with pessimism about the likelihood of progressive agreements to reduce the rate of global emissions. Such a situation makes us have to prepare for the worst, with the possibility of temperatures rising by 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.

Demonstrations from various civil groups held at the UNFCCC-COP25 complex since Friday morning marked such pessimism. The Friday for Future student movement held a massive demonstration from evening to night.

"Today, the last day of COP25, I call on all delegates to pay attention to science and ensure that the temperature of the Earth does not rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius as stipulated in the 2015 Paris Agreement," UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in his final message before the talks.

Scientists have provided a mountain of evidence showing that the trend of increasing greenhouse gases will cause the temperature of the Earth to increase by more than 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. One of the main objectives of COP25 is to finalize the mechanism of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which instructs countries to limit the global temperature increase to a maximum of 2 degrees, and ideally below 1.5 degrees. One important mechanism is about carbon trading.

KOMPAS/AHMAD ARIF

Thousands of people, dominated by adolescents from various countries, stage a rally in Madrid on Friday (6/12/2019) evening, demanding that world leaders taking part in the COP25 climate talks in the city take real action against climate change.

Emission target

The COP25 meeting in Madrid began with the hope that all countries reach an agreement to raise their greenhouse gas reduction target. The deadline for reviewing carbon reduction commitments in each country (NDC) is 2020, ahead of the next climate conference in Glasgow, England.

As of Thursday (12/12) night, nearly 80 countries led by the European Union had said they would increase their emissions targets by forming carbon neutral blocks in 2050. However, they only represent 10 percent of global emissions.

The biggest emitter countries like China, India, Brazil, Australia, the United States, Canada and Russia have not shown that they will raise their emission targets. Likewise, Indonesia, which is among the developing countries with large emissions, is at the same time vulnerable to being affected by climate change.

Spain’s Energy and Climate Change Minister Teresa Ribera, who is the host of COP25, acknowledged that both rich and developing countries had failed to make an agreement.

The failure of the negotiations, it was feared, would lead to greater social turmoil.

Deputy Environment and Forestry Minister Alue Dohong said Indonesia continued to meet the national emissions reduction target, which is 29 percent on its own and 41 percent with international assistance by 2030. However, so far it has not planned to raise its emissions target.

Mohammad Reza Sahib, National Coordinator of the People\'s Coalition for the Right to Water, who took part in COP25 as an observer, assessed that Indonesia\'s NDC target was too low.

Without a strong commitment from countries with major emissions, suppressing temperature rises below 1.5-2 degrees Celsius will be very difficult to achieve. Moreover, according to a report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the average temperature is now increasing by 1.1 degrees Celsius.

Antonio Guterres warned that failure to reduce emissions would force us to face a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius by 2100. The failure of the negotiations, it was feared, would lead to greater social turmoil.