Boris Johnson Gains More Freedom in Ensuring Brexit’s Outcome

AFP/POOL/STEFAN ROUSSEAU

Britain\'s Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Boris Johnson is greeted by staff as he arrives back at 10 Downing Street in central London on December 13, 2019, following an audience with Britain\'s Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace, where she invited him to become Prime Minister and form a new government. - Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Friday hailed a political "earthquake" in Britain after a thumping election victory which clears the way for the country to finally leave the EU next month after years of paralysing deadlock.

LONDON, FRIDAY – The election on Thursday (12/12/2019) gave United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson more freedom to ensure the country’s exit from the European Union. Now, focus has switched on trade negotiations between the UK and the EU, which requires more time to be straightened out.

In the election result announced on Friday (13/12/2019), Johnson’s Conservative Party won 365 out of 650 seats in the House of Parliament, 38 seats more than the minimum requirement to gain parliament majority. This enables Johnson to retain his premiership and gain easier parliamentarian approval for his policies, especially processing the UK’s exit from the EU, or Brexit.

“We will get Brexit done on time by the 31st [of] January. No ifs, no buts, no maybes. I will put an end to all that nonsense,” Johnson said in his victory speech.

He said Brexit could neither be delayed, rejected nor denied as the decision of all the British people. The result of the election also gave the government the opportunity to respect the wish of the people delivered in the Brexit referendum.

European Council President Charles Michel requested the UK House of Parliament to immediately approve the Brexit Law. Afterward, the EU and the UK will have to discuss post-Brexit trade agreements.

We will get Brexit done on time by the 31st [of] January.

“We hope the election will lead to immediate separation agreements,” he said.

Brexit has been delayed since the 2016 referendum, as the Conservative-controlled UK government cannot gain parliamentarian approval on its Brexit proposal. This has been proven difficult as the Conservative Party only had 318 House seats after the 2017 election. The Conservatives were then forced to find support from other parties to issue the law. That support has remained elusive.

Johnson specifically thanked voters from regions often seen as Labour Party strongholds. In the 2019 election, the Conservatives won in constituencies that traditionally voted for Labour.

PHOTO BY TOLGA AKMEN AND DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS / AFP

(COMBO) In this combination of photos created on December 12, 2019, Britain\'s Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his dog Dilyn (top), and Britain\'s Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, are are seen as they attend Polling Stations to cast their ballot papers and vote on December 12, 2019, as Britain holds a general election.

“You may intend to return to Labour next time around. If that is the case, I am humbled that you have put your trust in me and you have put your trust in us. I will make it my mission to work night and day, to work flat-out to prove you right in voting for me this time and to earn your support in the future,” he said.

Strathclyde University political expert John Curtice said that Conservatives’ victories in Labour constituencies is key in their victory in the 2019 election, in which Labour lost 59 seats compared to the 2017 election. Other than Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) also lost seats.

Liberal Democrats chair Jo Swinson even lost in her constituency in Scotland and had to give up her seat to a Scottish National Party (SNP) candidate. SNP chair Nicola Sturgeon openly celebrated the victory.

Johnson will have to decide whether he wants to stay close to the EU or to break away.

Despite Johnson having gained better footing to determine Brexit’s outcome, many see that the separation between London and Brussels will not be an easy one.

“Johnson will have to decide whether he wants to stay close to the EU or to break away,” Eurasia Group research center analyst Mujtaba Rahman said.

Victories in Labour strongholds have brought new challenges for Johnson’s Brexit campaign.

“These constituencies that Johnson won have many factories, industries and farms that will be hit hard by Brexit with no agreement. This will make Johnson’s position more difficult,” said London School of Economics public policy expert Tony Travers.

KELLY MOLLOY VIA AP

In this photo made available by Kelly Molloy, people queue to cast their ballots, at polling station, during the general election, in Clapham, London, Thursday, Dec. 12, 2019. Britain is holding an early election in wintry December, with a number of strange locations put in use as polling places. Among the places where Britons cast their ballots Tuesday were a car dealership, a laundrette, a Christmas grotto and of course some pubs. There were a few problems, including flooding at one location.

In various occasions, Johnson has said that he has plans to protect the supply chain. This means that, economically, the London-Brussels tie will remain strong.

“Without [import] tariffs, without [export-import] quotas,” he said.

According to Johnson, London will seek to implement a version of international cooperation currently adopted by EU and Canada. In this version, the UK enjoys exemption from various EU laws while still actively engaging in trade with the bloc. Nevertheless, the UK will have to deal with higher trade fees and burdens. The EU and Canada required eight and a half years to reach an agreement.

February 2020

The Brussels-London trade negotiation will begin after the Brexit deal is achieved. If Brexit occurs on Jan. 31, 2020, the negotiation will begin in February 2020. On July 1, 2020, London will have to submit an extension request if it expects the negotiation to carry on after Dec. 31, 2020.

If there is no request, the UK will have to face a no-deal Brexit. The EU will treat the UK as an entirely foreign entity, with the EU-UK relations being based on World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.

“It will not be easy to reach a deal as there are so many interests,” European Policy Centre economist Fabian Zuleeg said.

Tariff cuts can be easily agreed upon in negotiations, but London has never been able to reach deals on other issues. Under such a condition, London will have to face whatever options offered by Brussels. (AP/AFP/REUTERS)