The government must also be alert to the possibility of increases in rice prices.
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·3 minutes read
The government is urged to anticipate the impacts of the prolonged dry season on national rice stocks. The government must also be alert to the possibility of increases in rice prices (Kompas, 15/10).
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) estimates that this year’s dry season will be drier than in 2018. The drought, which has affected most rice production centers, is widespread.
According to the Agricultural Ministry, more areas are affected by drought and crop failure in January-October 2019 than in the same period last year. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data show that rice production and harvested areas in the first nine months of 2019 were also lower than in 2018. This means that without ample rice stock to fall back on, the condition could be worse than in 2018, with the possibility of price volatility at the end of 2019 until early 2020.
The government and the State Logistics Agency (Bulog) have given assurances that the national rice stock of 2.5 million tons is enough to last until the April 2020 harvest season, and that the government therefore does not need to issue import licenses. So far there is no need to carry out market operations in the regions.
This condition can be studied from two angles. Learning from previous droughts, the government this time may be better prepared as indicated by its effort to increase rice stocks through the purchases of rice from production centers outside Java that are relatively unaffected by drought.
Or conversely, the government may be underestimating the effects of the drought. According to the latest monitoring, affected areas continue to increase, while the drought is expected to last until November. Analysts predict a decline in production by at least 2 million tons due to drought and cultivation shifts. Therefore, it would be reasonable if they insisted accurate stock mapping be made.
It would not be the first time that the government has claimed a surplus in rice production and rice stock when there has been scarcity and price volatility, accompanied by ever-increasing rice imports.
Conflicting stock data could result in government indecisiveness in issuing rice import permits, which could result in a supply crisis and sharp price increases in the domestic rice market, similar to conditions in 2015 and 2017.
All this would be due to inaccurate food data, which often leads to policy distortions that are detrimental to many parties - farmers, industry, trade and consumers - and only benefit those who take advantage of the situation for personal gain.
Beyond that, the most important thing is to intensify short-term efforts to overcome the effects of drought in the field. We hope the Agricultural Ministry\'s efforts to plant rice on 670,000 ha of dry land and swamps in Sumatra, Sulawesi and Kalimantan will be able to reverse the decline in production caused by the drought.
The government should also be aggressive in creating programs, such as making artificial rain and building reservoirs. We also hope that long-term efforts to build dams, reservoirs, irrigation
networks and rural infrastructure improvements in recent years will be able to help reduce the impact of the drought on food production.
Learning from the turmoil of previous years, we can no longer take food governance and policies lightly given their serious impact on food, especially rice, economic stability and poverty levels.