Global emissions data from 2014 placed Indonesia as the fifth largest emitter of carbon at 2,470 megatons carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e). Indonesia has targeted to reduce its carbon emissions from 2,869 MtCO2e to 2,037 MtCO2e by 2030.
By
T. Nirarta Samadhi
·5 minutes read
Global emissions data from 2014 placed Indonesia as the fifth largest emitter of carbon at 2,470 megatons carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e).
As part of the global commitment to reduce carbon emissions, Indonesia has targeted to reduce its carbon emissions from 2,869 MtCO2e to 2,037 MtCO2e by 2030 through various emission management initiatives. The commitment was outlined in the country’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) as part of the Paris Agreement reached at the 2015 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
In order to fulfill this commitment, Indonesia has strengthened its low-carbon development by arranging a strategic environmental study for the country’s Mid-Term Development Plan 2020-2024 using emission intensity as a planning parameter. Emission intensity reflects the level of emissions produced (tons of carbon dioxide equivalent or tCO2e) in order to increase the national gross domestic product (GDP). The lower the intensity is, the better the quality of low-carbon development.
An analysis of the 2014 greenhouse gas emission data by the Environmental and Forestry Ministry and Statistics Indonesia (BPS) shows that Indonesia emits 174.53 tCO2e for every Rp 1 billion (US$68,730.40) increase of GDP. Compare this to India and China, which emit 106 tCO2e and 73 tCO2e, respectively, for the same amount of GDP increase.
Consequently, Indonesia’s total GDP in 2014 was US$890.8 billion, much smaller than India’s US$2.04 trillion or China’s US$10.48 trillion.
For instance, Bengkulu’s emission intensity with an economy based on farming and agriculture is 2,042.49 tCO2e with a GDP of Rp 24.6 million. Meanwhile, Jakarta with its service-based economy has an emission intensity of 37.60 tCO2e with a GDP of Rp 174.7 million. It is apparent that the character of a province’s economy affects the amount emissions it produces.
Therefore, regional and national development programs and strategies must be planned to reach effective emission reduction with optimum economic growth. This is the essence of low-carbon development.
Reduction plan
Emission reduction is effectively emphasized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report published on Oct. 8. This is in line with Paris Agreement’s mandate of requesting governments, including Indonesia’s, to make more ambitious emission reduction plans in 2020.
The IPCC report underlines the difficulties of holding the Earth’s temperature increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, technological capacity, scientific understanding and global funding capabilities are adequate to counter climate change. What is required is the political will and leadership across all countries. Under the current situation, we only have 12 years before the 1.5-degree-Celsius barrier is reached.
What can Indonesia do to effectively reduce emissions within such a short time period?
First, we need to come up with a mid-term development plan that mainstreams low-carbon development across government levels and sectors.
For instance, the use of renewable energy requires collaboration between the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, the Industry Ministry, the State-Owned Enterprises Ministry, the Environment and Forestry Ministry, as well as provincial and city/regency administrations. The collaboration should be orchestrated in such a way to achieve efficiency in development spending through integrated planning and budgeting.
The roles of the National Development Planning Board, the Finance Ministry for budgeting and the Home Ministry for regional implementation, are key to ensuring effective and efficient collaboration. The President should serve as guarantor of the cooperation, considering that climate change and emission reduction agendas will determine the success of the government’s programs.
Second, Indonesia’s NDC cites energy as the largest source of emissions starting from 2026. Therefore, transitioning from fossil-based energy sources to renewable ones is a must. The IPCC report cites that emissions from human activities must be reduced to 45 percent in 2030 and 0 percent in 2045. This means that decarbonization of the energy sector will have to be significant. Renewable energy must supply up to 70-80 percent of electricity needs by 2050.
This year, Indonesia increased the share of renewable energy in the energy mix to 12.5 percent, and has a target of 23 percent by 2025. This is a necessary emissions reduction target and it could be made more ambitious.
Examples include meeting 1 gigawatt of electricity demand from solar power through regulating the use of solar roof panels for households and industrial electricity supply. This will accelerate the transition toward renewable energy.
Third, in line with the expansion of renewable energy, a gradual reduction of coal use should be carefully planned and systematically implemented.
Renewable energy
Indonesia needs huge investment in renewable energy such as wind and solar energy, which are becoming cheaper. Government leadership requires ceasing investments into coal-fired power plants.
Fourth, Indonesia needs to start absorbing emissions in addition to cutting emissions. Forest and land restoration, including of peatland, is a natural means to absorb emissions and maintain water reserves, biodiversity and other environmental benefits.
Restoration also has environmental benefits. A 2018 World Resources Institute study titled “New Restoration Economy” and the UN-affiliated Bonn Challenge initiative show that Indonesia will gain an economic benefit of up to US$30 for every dollar spent in critical land restoration. Indonesia has more than 24 million hectares of critical land.
Indonesia needs visionary leadership, partial toward a sustainable future, to support consistent emissions reduction and good economic growth.