Wooing Voters with Populist Programs

KOMPAS/WAWAN H PRABOWO

Candidate pair Joko “Jokowi” Widodo (second left) and Ma\'ruf Amin (right) share a light moment with rival candidate pair Prabowo Subianto (far left) and Sandiaga Uno (standing) after drawing a number at the General Elections Commission (KPU) office in Central Jakarta on Friday (21/9/2018). In the public event, the Jokowi-Ma’ruf pair got number one and Prabowo-Sandiaga got number two.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS – The two candidates running for president are relying on populist economic programs to woo middle-class voters. However, these programs lack strong narratives and measurable indicators and may not convince more critical middle-class voters.

A Kompas R&D analysis on the vision, mission and programs of the Joko “Jokowi” Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin and Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno candidate pairs shows that economic programs are key elements in both campaigns.

The word “economy” shows up 33 times in Prabowo-Sandiaga’s vision, mission and programs and 75 times in Jokowi-Ma’ruf’s. Admittedly, the candidates’ proposed economic programs are popular among voters.

Prabowo and Sandiaga, for instance, propose abolishing the land and building tax (PBB) for first-time homeowners and increasing the minimum for non-taxable incomes (PTKP), which will certainly reduce the voters’ taxes. They are also proposing public housing based on a land bank scheme. The pair also proposes a “sedekah putih” (blank donation) community program as a way to combat poor nutrition in children.

Meanwhile, Jokowi and Ma’ruf are relying on popular current programs, including the asset redistribution and land certification programs. They are also proposing that the Santripreneur program be used to develop young entrepreneurs by providing training and financing.

Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) political researcher Syafuan Rozi Soebhan said in Jakarta on Tuesday (11/13/2018) that these campaign programs offered voters a look at what the candidates might do if they won the election. However, he said the programs did not have measurable indicators, such for measuring achievements, a management structure or time frames.

Without clear indicators, Syafuan said, the programs would remain symbolic and were merely populist.

Measurability

He said that women and millennial voters among the middle-class were interested in issues related to the price of basic needs and home ownership. “If [the candidates] can offer

measurable programs, women and millennials will have no doubts about casting their votes for them at the polling stations,” Syafuan said.

Airlangga University political science lecturer Kris Nugroho said that Prabowo’s and Jokowi’s focus on economic programs might be seen as an attempt at realigning their campaigns to the higher prevalence of rational voters. Many young voters were thought to be attracted to economic programs that directly and indirectly impacted them.

“The campaign teams realize that the higher prevalence of rational voters means that they have to come up with concrete programs on the economy. Economic programs that have a real impact could significantly affect electability,” said Kris.

The Jokowi-Ma’ruf national campaign team (TKN) said it was targeting Muslim, millennial and women voters – the largest voter groups in Indonesia – in the 2019 election. Spokesman Ahmad Basarah said the Jokowi campaign had grouped voters to enhance the effective dissemination of Jokowi-Ma’ruf’s work programs.

Prabowo-Sandiaga campaign spokesman Dahnil Anzar Simanjuntak said that many studies had shown that the three biggest issues among voters related to the economy. The Prabowo campaign will focus on making economic improvements to meet public demands.

(GAL/AGE/BOW/APA)