Surprises and Opportunities in 2019 Elections

KOMPAS/ALIF ICHWAN

at the General Election Commission (KPU) Building, Jakarta.

Exciting, lively and shocking. Never has the declaration of presidential and vice presidential candidates been as exuberant as this year. Both pairs turned out to be filled with surprises. There was a little surprise from Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s coalition and a huge shock from Prabowo Subianto’s.

The little surprise from Jokowi’s coalition was that influential cleric Ma’ruf Amin was ultimately chosen as his running mate, instead of senior politician Mahfud MD who reportedly had been told on Thursday (9/8/2018) morning to prepare himself to be announced as Jokowi’s VP candidate. In a live event at Kompas TV at 5 p.m., Mahfud was shown to be waiting with a group of campaign volunteers. He was wearing a long-sleeved white shirt, which Jokowi often wears when meeting with party leaders in his coalition.

However, Mahfud’s replacement with Ma’ruf was not a huge shock as Ma’ruf was always in the list of Jokowi’s potential running mates. His name was mentioned in both the list of 10 names leaked by United Development Party (PPP) chair Romahurmuziy and the five names once mentioned by Jokowi. I personally whittled down the list of Jokowi’s potential running mates into the “Three Ms”: Mahfud, Ma’ruf and Presidential Chief of Staff Moeldoko.

I did this whittling down based on the five criteria Jokowi mentioned for his running mate. First is that the person is not from political parties. This is understandable as it may reduce envy between political parties. Secondly, the person can counter issues related to ethnic, religious, racial and intergroup (SARA) sentiments. “Green” figures – either green as in military or green as in Islamic – is the most effective to achieve this.

Thirdly, the person is a senior figure. A young VP candidate may become a strong presidential candidate in 2024 and overshadow Jokowi’s popularity along the way. Fourthly, the person is not rejected by Megawati Soekarnoputri, the chairwoman of the political party to which Jokowi belongs. Fifthly, the person suits Jokowi’s leadership style. Jokowi’s deputy leaders both in Surakarta and in Jakarta were known as “fighters”, a personal trait that Jokowi is fond of.

The switch from Mahfud to Ma’ruf Amin reflects the shifting emphasis in these five criteria. If we look at Jokowi’s preferences, then we will come to Mahfud as our conclusion, mainly because he is known as a fighter. The problem with Mahfud is that he is not that old and he may consider running for president in 2024. Ma’ruf is picked by the political parties in Jokowi’s coalition as he is older than and not as aggressive as Mahfud. In these aspects, Ma’ruf is similar to Boediono, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s (SBY) running mate in seeking reelection in 2009.

Political deadlock

A bigger shock happened in Prabowo’s coalition. This was because Sandiaga Uno has never been discussed as his potential running mate, making the choice so far out in left field. Popular potential running mates for Prabowo included Democratic Party executive Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) executive Salim Segaf Al-Jufrie and National Mandate Party (PAN)

chair Zulkifli Hasan. All three are political party figures. Non-party figures included popular cleric Abdul Somad and Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan. Where did the name Sandiaga Uno come from?

Sandiaga’s name emerged from a political cul-de-sac or deadlock – The deadlock arising in the complications of picking Prabowo’s running mate. All parties in his coalition expected that their respective members be chosen as running mate. No one was willing to yield. The Democratic Party proposed AHY, which was rejected by the PAN and the PKS. PAN might not have enforced Zulkifli upon Prabowo but rejected the idea that either AHY or Salim be Prabowo’s running mate.

A middle way was proposed in the figures of Abdul Somad or Anies. However, Abdul rejected the offer and said that he preferred to remain a cleric for life. Anies reportedly rejected the offer as he wished to stay in Jakarta.

Here lies Sandiaga’s opportunity to serve as a middle way acceptable by both the PAN and the PKS. Why did the PKS accept him? It is believed that a PKS member would be given Jakarta’s deputy governor position that Sandiaga vacated. Why did the PAN accept him? Sandiaga Uno has resigned as Gerindra member and is reportedly in the process of entering PAN’s ranks. Why was it so difficult for the Democratic Party to accept him? Because there has yet to be a concrete incentive for them.

Chance of victory

What are the chances for either pair to win next year’s election and what will the political campaigns look like? The first question is difficult to answer as there has yet to be any simulation with this composition of pairs. All surveys commonly have three questions to estimate candidates’ strength. The first one relates to presidential candidates’ electability. The second one relates to VP candidates’ electability. The third one relates to pairs’ electability.

There is plenty of data with regards to the first question, as there have been only two popular names used in surveys since 2014, namely Jokowi and Prabowo. Latest survey data still shows that Jokowi has the upper hand. However, in surveys on VP candidates, Ma’ruf’s and Sandiaga’s names rarely show up as the surveys are usually dominated by AHY, Anies, Gatot Nurmantyo and Mahfud MD. Therefore, the electability of both the Jokowi-Ma’ruf and Prabowo-Sandiaga pairs remain a mystery that survey agencies must unravel.

A qualitative analysis for now may look at both candidates’ background. With Ma’ruf’s position as the Rais Aam (supreme leader) of the nation’s largest Muslim mass organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), it is hoped that the NU vote – which account for around 35 percent of the Muslim vote in Indonesia – will go to Jokowi and Ma’ruf Amin. Ma’ruf’s background as someone from Banten and the grandson of a renowned local cleric is hoped to attract the Banten vote – and also the West Java vote. Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla lost West Java in 2004.

Meanwhile, Prabowo hopes that Sandiaga can attract the youth and women’s vote. Ethnically, Sandiaga’s father is from Gorontalo and his mother is from West Java. As such, there is hope that Sandiaga can attract the Eastern Indonesia vote, especially from Sulawesi. However, this will be difficult as Sandiaga did not grow up and go to school in Gorontalo. He is different from Jusuf Kalla, who grew up, went to school, started his business and first gained fame in Sulawesi and Eastern Indonesia.

Political parties’ strength

The second qualitative analysis is related to the strength of political parties behind both pairs. Using the vote tally of the 2014 presidential election, Jokowi-Ma’ruf has the upper hand with 60 percent of

votes against Prabowo-Sandiaga’s 40 percent. However, there are two notes to be made here. First, the strength of political parties in 2019 may be different from those in 2014 – some will experience surges of votes and others declines. Second, political parties have different degress of militancy among their grass root members and supporters.

The Jokowi-Ma’ruf pair have up to four strongly militant political machines. First is the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), which Jokowi belongs to. Second is the Nasdem Party, which has always been loyal to Jokowi, as proven by being the first party to officially support Jokowi both in 2014 and this year. Third is the National Awakening Party (PKB), where Ma’ruf once served as head of religious council and has the full support of party chair Muhaimin Iskandar. Fourth is the PPP, of which Ma’ruf was once a member and due to the party’s affiliation to NU.

In Prabowo-Sandiaga’s coalition, the strongest political machine will be the Gerindra Party, as the two are, respectively, Gerindra chairman and deputy chief patron. Please note that, in the history of presidential elections in Indonesia, presidential and VP candidates have never hailed from the same party. This will be Prabowo-Sandiaga’s weak point, except if Sandiaga truly switches allegiance to PAN and gains PAN’s full support. Meanwhile, the PKS will always be reliable as it has proven time and again in various elections.

Lastly, what will the political campaigns look like ahead of next year’s elections? First, we will see a mixture of presidential and legislative campaigns. The latter is itself a mixture of campaigns for the party and the legislative candidate. This has never happened before and no one can say how it will look.

Secondly, it is hoped that politicization of SARA issues in political campaigns will decline with the current composition of pairs. Thirdly, it seems that economic issues will dominate as a major theme in campaigns ahead of the 2019 presidential election. This is because economic issues are currently the talk of the whole nation and both VP candidates have strong economic credentials. Ma’ruf Amin is a lecturer of sharia economy and Sandiaga Uno is a successful businessman. (M QODARI, Executive Director, Indo Barometer, Jakarta)