The most powerful man in Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the ruling party, the Justice and Development Party, still have to work hard, given their critical position ahead of voting day, Sunday (24/6/2018).
By
Musthafa Abd Rahman
·4 minutes read
REUTERS/GORAN TOMASEVIC/FILE PHOTO
Workers adjust a large election poster of President Tayyip Erdogan in Mardin, capital of Mardin province in southeastern Turkey, June 19, 2018.
ISTANBUL, KOMPAS —There washustle and bustle in Istanbul, the biggest city of Turkey with 15 million people, ahead of the election on Thursday (21/6/2018). The most powerful man in Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the ruling party, the Justice and Development Party, still have to work hard, given their critical position ahead of voting day, Sunday (24/6).
Large and small photos of Erdogan dominated several areas in Istanbul. Volunteers for Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) worked hard to attract more voters in those cities.
Turkish political observer Metin Turan told Kompas in Istanbul that it would be difficult for the AKP to win the majority of the vote, as it did during the parliamentary election in November 2015. Besides, it would be hard for Erdogan to win more than 50 percent of the vote and thereby secure the presidency in first round of voting.
The position of Erdogan and the AKP, especially in Istanbul, is now seen as the most precarious since the party won the election in 2002.
AP/PRESIDENCY PRESS SERVICE
Supporters of Turkey\'s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan\'s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) attend an election rally for the upcoming June 24, elections, in Kahramanmaras, eastern Turkey, Thursday, June 21, 2018. Turkey holds parliamentary and presidential elections on June 24, 2018, deemed important as it will transform Turkey\'s governing system to an executive presidency.
The presidential and parliamentary elections will be held simultaneously on Sunday, after a constitutional amendment of April 2017 transformed the governance system from a parliamentary to a presidential system. After the June 24 poll, the Turkish presidency, which used to be a symbolic office, will have full executive powers.
There are two big coalitions in Turkey’s presidential and legislative elections: One is the People’s Coalition that consists of three political parties, namely the AKP, the ultra-right secular nationalist Nationalistic Movement Party (MHP) and the ultra-right Big Unity Party (BBP). The other is the Mass Coalition of the social democratic Republican People’s Party (CHP), the liberal-conservative IYI Party, the ultra-right Saadet Party (SP) and the center-right Democratic Party (DP).
Stiff rivalry in Istanbul
Istanbul is traditionally a key battleground in the rivalry among political parties. For presidential candidates and political parties, Istanbul is crucial.
The city, known for the Bosphorus Strait that separates Asia and Europe, is home to 10.6 million people with voting rights, or around 18 percent of Turkey’s voting population. Winning in Istanbul helps candidates and political parties win elections.
AP PHOTO/EMRAH GUREL
People walk past posters of Meral Aksener, the presidential candidate of nationalist opposition IYI (Good) Party, in Istanbul, Thursday, June 21, 2018. Aksener, 61, who split from Turkey\'s main nationalist party following a spat with its leader over his support to Turkey\'s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey holds parliamentary and presidential elections on June 24, 2018.
Istanbul is also where 51.35 percent of the voters rejected the government’s proposal for the constitutional amendment in April 2017. Erdogan and the AKP were shocked at the results of the referendum in Istanbul, given that the city has been the basis of the AKP. Erdogan, as the governor of Istanbul in the 1990s, was very popular in the city. That is why Erdogan’s camp is nervous about the outcome of the upcoming poll.
An election survey by Metropol, which is based in Ankara, suggests that Erdogan might collect 45 percent of the presidential vote nationwide, with 9 percent abstaining.
Metropol also reported that the People’s Coalition would win 46 percent, while the Mass Coalition would get 33 percent. The Kurdish Party and Democratic People’s Party (HDP) would collect 10 percent of the vote, with 7 percent abstaining.
Meanwhile, a pollster close to the government reported that Erdogan could win 52-55 percent of the vote. In other words, Erdogan would win the presidential election by a landslide, collecting more than 50 percent of the vote.
AFP PHOTO/ADEM ALTAN
A campaign poster for The Republican People\'s Party (CHP) presidential candidate Muharrem Ince (right) shows him with the founder of the Turkish republic Mustafa Kemal Ataturk (left), and the head of the CHP, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu (center) on June 19, 2018 in Ankara, ahead of June 24th Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections.
On the other side, a pollster close to the opposition said Erdogan might gain 43-48 percent, thus missing the 50 percent needed to win outright and thereby necessitating a run-off.
In the 2014 election, Erdogan – backed solely by the AKP, without a coalition – gained 51.79 percent of the vote. His rival from the MHP, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, collected 38.44 percent.
Erdogan and the AKP are now wary of the presidential candidate from the CHP, Muharrem Ince, and the vice-presidential candidate from the IYI, Meral Aksener. Ince is known to have oratory skills like Erdogan. Aksener, meanwhile, is known as an iron lady with extraordinary oratory skills.
