Egypt’s About-Face
From the beginning, even before the third election since the Arab Spring of 2011 had been organized, the victor was already known: incumbent Abdel Fatah el-Sisi, who won the 2014 presidential election.
The three-day presidential election in Egypt on Mar. 26-28 brought no surprises. From the beginning, even before the third election since the Arab Spring of 2011 had been organized, the victor was already known: incumbent Abdel Fatah el-Sisi, who won the 2014 presidential election. It is expected that people would call it a referendum, and not election.
Egypt’s allies in the west have called the election a joke. Moreover, all other candidates who would have challenged Sisi – Lt. Gen. Sami Anan, right-wing politician Mortada Mansour, anticorruption auditor Hisham Geneina, Col Ahmed Konsowa, former prime minister Ahmed Shafif, left-wing lawyer Khaled Ali, Abdul Moneim Aboul Fotouh and former president Anwar Sadat’s nephew, Mohamed Anwar al-Sadat – either chose or were forced to withdraw their candidacy.
Thus, it is no easy thing to say that the election was free and fair. Many international and national human rights groups, including Human Rights Watch and the International Law Experts Commission, accused Sisi of “having ‘trampled over even the minimum requirements for free and fair elections’” in order to be reelected. (The Guardian, 13/2/2018)
Eventually, only one contender remained, politician Mousa Mostafa Mousa of the pro-government El-Ghad Party. Mousa was simply “a companion” – a familiar terminology during the New Order – to give the impression that the election was democratic.
As a result, Sisi garnered 97.08 percent of votes. Of the 60 million registered voters, 41.4 percent had cast their ballots. Compared to the 2014 election, the number of citizens exercising their voting rights had dropped by 7 percentage points. In 2014, Sisi ran against Hamdeen Sabahi and won 96.9 percent of all votes, with 47.5 percent of 54 million registered voters (25.5 million) casting their ballots.
The largest number of voters cast their ballots in the first election in 2012, following the Arab Spring. At that time, Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafik ran for the presidency, with 52 percent of 51 million registered voters participating. Morsi won the election with 51.73 percent of votes.
Seven years
Why have the number of voting electorate declined since the previous election in 2014? Was this a successful result of the “boycott election” group? Was it a form of protest against Sisi’s policies that have eliminated his political rivals, silenced media freedom, banned pro-democracy organizations and citizens and issued laws to curb the people’s rights? (Gonda Yumitro, Heavy Nala Estriani: 2018)
The falling number of voters could simply be perceived as the public’s faltering trust in Sisi, although this is still higher than during the Hosni Mubarak era. In the 2005 election, only 23 percent of the 32 million-strong electorate cast their votes, with 88.57 percent voting for Mubarak).
In fact, the Sisi administration has made many achievements. For example, inflation dropped (from 12 percent in 2014 to 33 percent in 2017, and 15 percent by March 2018), as did unemployment according to the World Bank (13.2 percent in 2014, 12.8 percent in 2015, 12.1 percent in 2016 and 11.6 percent in 2017). Meanwhile, unemployment among the youth – who, in 2011, was the driving soul of the Arab Spring – was at 40 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Unemployment has been a long-standing problem for Egypt. However, compared to the unemployment rate in 2011, when the revolution broke out, it had dropped from 12 percent to 11.6 percent in 2017. (Statista: 2017) Thus, the minimum national wage of 1,200 Egyptian pounds (US$174), which had not changed from 2013 to 2018, had become inadequate. At today’s exchange rates, 1,200 Egyptian pounds equals $68. (Al Jazeera) So, it is unsurprising that the people are disappointed, because the present condition is no better than before the Arab Spring.
In addition, 28 percent of the Egyptian population lives below the poverty line. At 25.2 percent, the current poverty rate is higher than it was in 2010-2011, while Egypt is receiving $12 billion from the IMF.
About-face
Was the presidential election the ultimate goal of the Arab Spring? Actually, since the military under Sisi seized power from Morsi (2013) – although Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, with its Freedom and Justice Party political wing, also contributed – the democratic transition has failed.
Since then, Sisi has consolidated and considered the possibility of increasing the military’s role in political decision-making, policymaking (on the Sinai Peninsula), investment, state development and government in general.
Egypt also increased its armed forces by 30 percent, from 320,000 in 2011 to 468,500 in 2014, including reserve personnel. (Rasmus Alenius Boserup and Jakob Wichmann: 2015)
Today, the military plays a greater role in politics, even compared to the Mubarak era. During the Mubarak era, the military “ruled but did not govern”, to use the words of Steven A Cook (2007). Under Sisi’s leadership, the military is attempting to both rule and govern. The current regime is a pyramid of control with the military at the top, the intelligence in the middle and other authorities such as the police, judicial institutions and the bureaucracy as the bottom foundation. (Ashraf El Sherif: 2017)
Thus, the military is presenting itself as the guardian of the state – under the pretext of fighting terrorism and radical groups that threaten the state’s existence – which has the exclusive right to control, order or divide responsibilities among other state institutions.
To date, the goals and ideals of the Arab Spring have not been attained. Egypt has returned to its pre-revolution era, and the military rules again.