Popularity that Negates Chance

Kompas/HANDINING

Bambang Setiawan

The three provincial elections in Java, namely in West Java, Central Java and East Java, have important implications for the chess game of national politics ahead of the 2019 general election. The victors in these three provinces may lead to renewed spirit among political parties and presidential candidates contesting the 2019 election.

Almost half of nationwide voters in the 2014 general election (47.9 percent) lived in West Java, Central Java and East Java. West Java has the most voters with 33,045,082 (17.4 percent), followed by East Java with 30,639,897 (16.1 percent) and Central Java with 27,385,217 (14.4 percent).

Apart from its significant voting population, West Java is a fierce electoral battleground because of its proximity to the nation’s capital, Jakarta. Its influence on national politics is significant, as West Java is a political macrocosm and a large power base of the state. Most of the capital is surrounded by West Java.

The simultaneous legislative and presidential elections in 2019 has caused political parties to undertake more detailed calculations to ensure their continued existence. In this kind of situation, political parties become highly dependent on a singular political occasion ahead of the 2019 election: the 2018 regional elections. Political parties that win in major electoral regions will have a bigger chance in cementing its position following the 2019 elections. Therefore, the parties’ strategy in selecting candidates determines their chance of victory. Parties with popular candidates have a greater chance of winning in an equal war that relies only on an individual’s capability, appeal and performance.

A survey by the Kompas Research And Development (Kompas R&D) in late February and early March observed this burgeoning competition in the gubernatorial elections in West Java, Central Java and East Java. The survey involved 800 respondents in each province. The survey results are being published in three articles from today.

Political parties’ support

The simultaneous regional elections on June 27, 2018 present diverse political parties that have formed coalitions. In West Java, the Golkar-Democratic party coalition has nominated Deddy Mizwar and Dedi Mulyadi. The Nasdem Party, United Development Party (PPP), National Awakening Party (PKB) and People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) coalition is backing Ridwan Kamil and Uu Ruzhanul Ulum. The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), Greater Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and National Mandate Party (PAN) coalition is backing Sudrajat and Ahmad Syaikhum, while the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is backing TB Hasanuddin and Anton Charliyan.

Two coalitions are contesting the Central Java election. The PDI-P, Democratic Party, Nasdem, Golkar and PPP coalition is backing Ganjar Pranowo and Taj Yasin. The pair will face Sudirman Said and Ida Fauziyah, supported by PKS, Gerindra, PAN and PKB.

The East Java election will also see the candidate pairs of two coalitions. The PDI-P, PKB, PKS and Gerindra are backing Saifullah Yusuf and Puti Guntur Soekarno, while rival pair Khofifah Indar Parawansa and Emil Elestianto Dardak have the support of Golkar, Democratic Party, Nasdem, PAN, PPP and Hanura.

The Kompas R&D survey shows that party backing is an important consideration for 33.3 percent of respondents in Central Java and West Java in determining their vote, and 27 percent of respondents in East Java. Despite not being a major consideration in Central Java, 7 percent of respondents said they voted for a pair strictly because of which party supported them, and 13.6 percent said they considered the suitability of the election candidates with the parties behind them. This is similar to the findings in the two other Javanese provinces, even though far less significance was found among respondents in East Java.

The relatively fluid support and absence of strong polarization among political parties in the East Java election makes it difficult to assess the impact of party influences on the upcoming election.

Popularity gap

The wide popularity gap between the Central Java incumbent candidate Ganjar Pranowo and his rivals has turned the election into a one-horse race. A visual simulation showed that 78.4 percent of respondents recognized Ganjar’s face and name, while 16.3 percent of respondents recognized his running mate Taj Yasin. Sudirman Said, however, is recognized by only 26.4 percent of respondents, and his running mate Ida Fauziyah is recognized by only 12.4 percent of respondents.

In West Java, recognizability remains a serious hurdle for gubernatorial candidates as well as the political parties behind them.

In East Java, the recognizability gap is apparent within each gubernatorial candidate pair, between the candidate running for governor and their running mate running for deputy governor. Former Social Affairs Minister Khofifah Indar Parawansa is recognized by 85 percent of respondents while her running mate, Trenggalek Regent Emil Dardak, is recognized by only 39.8 percent of respondents. Incumbent deputy governor Saifullah Yusuf is recognized by 77.6 percent of respondents while his running mate, lawmaker and founding father Soekarno’s granddaughter, Puti Guntur Soekarno, is recognized by only 32.9 percent of respondents.

Recognizability is highly influential in the regional election, as reflected in respondents’ top-of-mind responses on the candidates’ names. Most respondents gave Khofifah-Emil as their first answer.

More detailed reports on the potential electability of candidates will be published in the next two days. The first report on East Java election, “The Crystallization of Two Figures”, appears on Page 4.