Toward the Year of Gambling on the Existence of Political Parties

Kompas/Alif Ichwan

Presidential candidate pairs Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa (right), and Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo and Jusuf Kalla embrace after presenting their respective vision and mission in their first presidential candidate debate in Jakarta on June 6, 2014.

The year 2018 will be a gamble for political parties because it is when their very existence will be decided, not in the 2019 general election. The existence of the parties will totally change the concentration of power for two figures, namely Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and Prabowo Subianto.

The 2019 general election will become a confirmation on coalition strategies declared at the time of registering presidential and vice presidential candidates in August 2018. Therefore, 2018 will be a struggle for the very existence of parties that do not have a solid voter base and do not have members who have the potential to be named presidential and vice presidential candidates. This has been caused by the general elections system, which has changed.

Concentration on two figures

The 2019 election will be the first in the country to involve the election of the president and members of the House of Representatives (DPR), Regional Representatives Council (DPD), provincial legislative councils (DPRD I) and city/regency councils (DPRD II) on April 17, 2019. Under such circumstances, party programs or historical ties with other parties will not be able to compete with the allure of the contesting figures. Its impacts will be very serious for parties that do not have contesting figures.

Presidential and vice presidential candidates will get the most votes from parties whose members field candidates. The election is expected to center on Jokowi and Prabowo, and their parties will garner the most votes.

The middle level will be filled by parties that can field vice presidential candidates. Two parties that will garner the most votes are likely to be the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Gerindra Party.

Low-level parties will compete to offer their members as partners of the two figures as vice presidential candidates, not because they have the potential to contribute to the victory but to ensure their parties\' survival. By having figures who can contest the election, at least their voter base can be maintained.

Swing voters will become a phenomenon that will tend to be disadvantageous for small parties.

If the concentration of party support for the two figures continues until registration of presidential and vice presidential candidates closes on Aug. 10, 2018, the chances of survival for low-level parties will be slim. Low-level parties could disappear from legislative institutions as they could fail to reach the electoral threshold of 4 percent if there is no figure that can unite their constituents.

With the simultaneous staging of legislative elections and presidential elections, people will likely vote for parties that support their presidential preference. Swing voters will become a phenomenon that will tend to be disadvantageous for small parties.

Such a phenomenon happened during the 2009 legislative election. Parties that from the beginning supported and joined a coalition supporting Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono faced a drastic fall in votes garnered. Therefore, a party coalition constitutes a powerful relation in connecting parties, with a concentration of power on one side absorbing votes from the other side.

In the next general election, even though small parties will contribute to the formation of the national leadership, they will not be able to avoid the vortex that will affect their existence. House seats will be increasingly out of reach for low-level parties, except if they are able to propose alternative figures.

The emergence of alternative candidates is possible if there is joint awareness. In order to survive, medium and small parties have to introduce a wider battle field.

(BAMBANG SETIAWAN, KOMPAS\' RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT DIVISION)