Indonesian Demography 2045
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World Population Day was observed on July 11, 2017 with the theme “Family Planning: Empowering People, Developing Nations”. The theme matched that of the 24th National Family Day on June 29, 2017: "With National Family Day, Building the Character of the Nation through Resilient Families".
Both themes signify the importance of the population and family issues in Indonesia. Ahead of Independence Day on Aug. 17, 2017, we need to discuss issues related to population and families and their condition when Indonesia celebrates its 100 years of independence in 2045. Has there been any meaningful social changes? What achievements have been made? What still needs to be addressed?
Indonesia is the fourth-most populous country in the world after China, India and the United States. In 2017, Indonesia\'s population is estimated to have exceeded 265 million people, making it bigger than in other developing countries.
According to Central Statistics Agency (BPS) data, Indonesia’s birth rate stagnated at 2.6 children per a woman from 2002 to 2012. The annual population growth rate (LPP) has reached 1.49 percent per year, higher than the forecasted 1.45 percent per year. Therefore, the government is continuing its efforts to reduce the birth rate through the family planning program.
Population density affects the carrying capacity and ability of the environment. The conversion of farmland continues to increase, both in rural and urban areas. Overall rice field or plantation area has declined as some land as been converted into residential areas. As a consequence, farming areas are encroaching on forests.
Data show that degradation of the tropical forest is rising in Kalimantan. Since 1950, about 65 percent of the forest area has been destroyed. With the high rate of deforestation, no wonder many natural disasters have taken place, such as landslides in Ponorogo, East Java, and flooding in West Sumatra earlier this year. All are the consequences of uncontrolled land conversion that destroys the natural ecosystem.
Condition of population
What will be the difference between the condition of the population at present and in 2045? By 2045, the Indonesian population will reach 318 million people with the assumption that the birth rate can be reduced.
Total birth rate is projected at 1.93 children per woman, indicating that the slogan "Two children are enough" has been accepted by society. The gender equality index is relatively good because people do not differentiate between boys and girls. The most important thing is to prepare for the future.
The portion of people of productive age between 15 and 64 years in 2045 as a prerequisite of the demographic bonus is expected to reach 66.6 percent. Although the 2045 figure would have passed the window of opportunity stage, as the peak of the demographic bonus, during which the portion of the population of the highest productive ages would have been achieved in the previous period, 2028-2031, at 67.9 percent.
The peak of the demographic bonus still has a prerequisite of providing employment for the large proportion of the workforce, and to prevent a high unemployment rate.
The picture of the population in 2045 is not only seen in quantity, but also in quality. In addition to improved health, marked by an increase in life expectancy to 71 years for men and 74.8 years for women, and an increasing proportion of elderly people aged 60 and above: 15 percent of the total population by 2045.
With a lower birth rate, efforts to improve the quality of the population can also be increased. The Indonesian Golden Era in 2045 is 28 years away. What does this mean? Based on the life cycle approach, someone born this year will be 28-33 years old in 2045, or of a productive working age. They must be well-nourished from now on through careful parenting.
Children aged seven to 19 years in 2017 will be 35 to 47 by 2045, the group that will control the Indonesian labor market. This age group will be at the peak of their performance at that time in line with the cycle of human life. It means that these people must be provided with a good education. They must be taught entrepreneurship skills so that they will be able create jobs independently. They should also learn about character through the "mental revolution."
In addition to academic education for the mastery of science and technology, entrepreneurial skills must be also taught so that they will be able to become an independent workforce.
The adults or the productive workforce of 2017, aged 25-60 years, are also parents who are educating and raising their sons and daughters. This group of the population will also become part of the elderly population in 2045. These parents have a responsibility to teach Pancasila to their children and instill in them its noble values.
The success of producing the country’s generation of 2045 will be determined by current parents. If, at present, they behave dishonestly, lie or break promises, do not be surprised if later in 2045, there are still corruption cases. The current population of productive age, which will be elderly by 2045, also needs to improve the quality of themselves. Being a tough elderly is everyone\'s hope, one that is healthy, dignified, capable of contributing to the surrounding community and independent. If the elderly are still able to contribute economically, it is not impossible that Indonesia will again enjoy a second demographic bonus.
Family rate
The picture of Indonesia\'s population needs to be further explored, especially at the micro-community unit, i.e. the family level. The utilization of family data collection in Indonesia is very important to provide a picture of population dynamics at the family level, especially when linked to the life cycle among family members themselves. Much valuable information from family records can be used to compare the current family condition and that in 2045, in addition to using the information for intervention planning programs.
In addition to formal education, our generation must also be equipped with the good manners to become good Indonesian citizens. The values of Pancasila should be the basis for thinking, acting and behaving in everyday life. This can be instilled in the spirit of the mental revolution, which Bung Karno defined as "the movement of galvanizing the Indonesian people by altering values, beliefs, mind-sets, behaviors and cultures, in order to become a new man with a pure heart, ironed willed, eagle spirited and a burning soul."
The mental revolution is described in the three main values of Indonesian human character, which can be applied in everyday life, namely the values of integrity, work ethics and mutual help.
Integrity is associated with honest, credible, consistent behavior between thoughts and words and actions, and is responsible. Work ethics deal with the nature of hardworking, smart work, innovative, productive, resilient and always optimistic. While the value gotong royong (mutual cooperation) means the ability to work together, communal solidarity and prioritizing common interests.
It should be acknowledged that, at the most micro level, such values have been effectively adopted in family settings. As the most prevalent example today, the value of honesty in warding off the seeds of corrupt behavior should be instilled from an early age. This would be more effective if parents gave their children clear examples of honesty.
The role of the family is crucial as the first and main vehicle in sowing good values and norms in the development of society and the nation. There should be an equal contribution of development so that the results can be enjoyed by the entire population, from Sabang to Merauke. In terms of mobility, the current spread of the Indonesian population is still unbalanced. The island of Java, which is only 7 percent of Indonesian territory, is inhabited by 58 percent of the population.
In terms of population density, our country is experiencing a distribution disparity. In Papua province, the density rate is only eight people per square kilometer, while in Jakarta it reaches 17,000 people per square kilometer.
The pattern of population distribution from one island to another does not change much. According to the last population census in 2010, the portion of population in Java that “moved” to Sumatra was raised to 21 percent from 1 percent. However, the percentage of population distribution on the other island remains the same. In Sulawesi it is 7 percent, Kalimantan 5 percent, Bali and Nusa Tenggara 5 percent, and Maluku and Papua 2 percent.
A solution to cope with imbalanced population distribution is being sought. The current government is actively building transportation routes in Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Papua. Marine highways are also being developed to build connectivity between regions and islands so that mobility is improved both for people and commodities and services.
Thus, economic activities will not be dominated solely by Java. If economic growth is evenly distributed throughout Indonesia, in 2045 the distribution of the population inter-large islands in Indonesia will be more even.
With the commemoration of the three great moments: National Family Day on June 29, World Population Day on July 11 and Independence Day on Aug 17, we have to ask what work must be done. The government will not be able to work alone, but must work together with local administrations, elements of society and the private sector, as well as academics to achieve the desired targets and expectations about the ideal Indonesian population in 2045.
Not only the government, but society should also play its part and share the same responsibility. Establishing the next generation, which is credible and reliable, will be determined by the care and attention of parents in every family, through the formation of the human character with the mental revolution.
All the investment and parenting of today\'s parents will reap the rewards from our future generation in 2045, displaying their character and qualities, to bring welfare and prosperity to the nation. Hopefully.
SURYA CHANDRA SURAPATY
Head of the National Population and Family Planning Agency
