Stevedoring activities at the Jakarta International Container Terminal, Tanjung Priok, Jakarta, Wednesday (15/4). Based on Central Statistics Agency data, exports in February 2017 fell by 6.17 percent to US$12.57 billion from $13.40 billion in the previous month.
JAKARTA, KOMPAS – Indonesia’s international trade showed signs of recovery early this year. Imports and exports during the January-February period indicated positive growth.
However, uncertainty in the United States and the slowdown in China\'s economic growth will cloud the trade prospects in the following months.
"It is still difficult to tell whether the positive trend will continue. The threat of protectionism by Donald Trump, if carried out, could ignite a trade war that would disrupt world trade. Hopefully that will not happen," the head of Economic Studies and Public Policy, Gadjah Mada University, A. Tony Prasetiantono, said when contacted in Yogyakarta on Wednesday.
Tony hoped that commodity prices would stay at normal levels or at least not fall so that the positive growth trend of exports and imports could continue.
According to Tony, China is the main target of the US government in reducing its trade deficit. If the US government adopts protectionism, China will be at risk of a slowdown in economic growth. As China is one of Indonesia\'s major trading partners, an economic slowdown there could affect trade with Indonesia.
Indonesia’s exports and imports suffered negative growth in 2014-2016. During January-February 2017, exports and imports grew positively.
According to Central Statistics Agency (BPS) data, Indonesia’s exports rose 11.16 percent year-on-year to US$12.57 billion. Exports of non-oil commodities reached $11.38 billion or 90.53 percent of total exports. Meanwhile, imports totaled $11.26 billion in February 2017, up 10.61 percent year-on-year. Oil imports in February amounted to $2.42 billion, double the oil imports in the same month in 2016.
Pri Agung Rakhmanto, a lecturer at Trisakti University, Jakarta, said the surge in oil and gas imports was highly affected by the availability of stock in the country and the fluctuation of oil prices during the period. "It is difficult to judge whether it is realistic or not. The indicator is not merely statistics. We must also see stock and prices during that period," he added.
Growth
During a plenary meeting on Wednesday, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo expressed optimism, but said the draft 2018 state budget should be realistic and credible. The President also challenged Cabinet ministers to increase the economic growth target in 2018 to between 5.4 percent and 6.1 percent. The government will also further increase investment, which is expected to grow 8 percent in 2018.
"Because our fiscal capacity is limited, investment should not only rely on the government in 2018. Between 70 percent and 80 percent should come from private and state-owned enterprises," the president said.
